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PRODID:UW-Madison-Physics-Events
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UID:UW-Physics-Event-1194
DTSTART:20080930T170500Z
DURATION:PT1H0M0S
DTSTAMP:20260423T010306Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20080908T173054Z
LOCATION:4274 Chamberlin (Refreshments will be served)
SUMMARY:Indicators of regime shifts in ecosystems\, Chaos & Complex Sy
 stems Seminar\, Steve Carpenter\, UW Center for Limnology
DESCRIPTION:Ecosystems occasionally undergo rapid massive changes - de
 sertification\, algae blooms of lakes\, replacement of coral reefs by 
 fleshy algae turf\, trophic cascades\, economic collapse of fisheries\
 , and shrub invasion of rangelands are a few examples. Some regime shi
 fts have big impacts on human life-support and are therefore important
  for environmental policy. Thus the detection and prediction of regime
  shifts has emerged as a research topic in basic and applied ecology. 
 Theory shows that certain regular changes in time series should be mea
 surable before an incipient regime shift - autoregression coefficients
  near one\, variance spectra shifted to low frequencies\, and rising v
 ariance\, skewness and kurtosis\, for example. However\, not all regim
 e shifts show these indicators\, and some show opposite responses. Whi
 le leading indicators show promise as tools for field science and ecos
 ystem management\, at present it is difficult to diagnose the characte
 ristics of incipient regime shifts from the indicators alone. Field tr
 ials\, and modeling to connect theory with the characteristics of part
 icular ecosystems in the field\, are needed to improve our understandi
 ng of these signals.
URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=1194
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