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VERSION:2.0
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PRODID:UW-Madison-Physics-Events
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SEQUENCE:0
UID:UW-Physics-Event-4519
DTSTART:20170404T170500Z
DTEND:20170404T180000Z
DTSTAMP:20260313T132512Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20170317T161620Z
LOCATION:4274 Chamberlin (refreshments will be served)
SUMMARY:“Wet chaos”: Characteristics of extreme rains in a changin
 g climate\, Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar\, John Young\, UW Departme
 nt of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
DESCRIPTION:Edward Lorenz (1917- 2008) produced a series of theoretica
 l papers on the predictability of idealized weather systems which led 
 him to be known as a “Father of Chaos”. He concentrated on weather
  circulation models which yielded non-periodic behavior. Since “clim
 ate” is simply the long-term statistics of weather variability\, it 
 also reflects chaos properties which include irregularity of extreme s
 tates.<br><br>
\n<br><br>
\nThe implication for real weather systems i
 s that precipitation\, an important climate variable and by-product of
  rising moist air\, possesses some form of chaos. This is made more co
 mplex because precipitating weather releases condensational heating\, 
 a positive feedback on the circulation. The properties of chaotic prec
 ipitation necessarily depend on the wide varieties space and time scal
 es\, ranging from local transient torrential thunderstorms to regional
  monthly heavy rain totals.<br><br>
\n<br><br>
\nThe edges of the attr
 actor basin of precipitation are important because of their impact on 
 ecology and human activities. Examples show how the probability distri
 butions of heavy rain differ greatly from those of temperature\, wind\
 , etc. These empirical distributions are uncertain due to limited data
  length (e.g.\, 120 years) and improbability of extreme events.  <br>

 \n<br>
\nSome questions of interpretation for power law-like relations
  and dependence on duration will be discussed.  Finally\, the implicat
 ions of a temperature-dependent water vapor constraint suggest how glo
 bal warming may lead to increasing limits of extreme precipitation.
URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=4519
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