BEGIN:VCALENDAR
VERSION:2.0
CALSCALE:GREGORIAN
PRODID:UW-Madison-Physics-Events
BEGIN:VEVENT
SEQUENCE:0
UID:UW-Physics-Event-5064
DTSTART:20190416T170500Z
DTEND:20190416T180000Z
DTSTAMP:20260415T145031Z
LAST-MODIFIED:20190305T013245Z
LOCATION:4274 Chamberlin (refreshments will be served)
SUMMARY:Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future clima
 tes\, Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar\, Kevin Burke\, UW Department of
  Geography
DESCRIPTION:As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrat
 ions\, the Earth system moves toward climate states without societal p
 recedent\, challenging adaptation. Past Earth system states offer poss
 ible model systems for the warming world of the coming decades. These 
 include the climate states of the Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma)\, the Mid-P
 liocene (3.3–3.0 Ma)\, the Last Interglacial (129–116 ka)\, the Mi
 d-Holocene (6 ka)\, preindustrial (ca. 1850 CE)\, and the 20th century
 . Here\, we quantitatively assess the similarity of future projected c
 limate states to these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations 
 from the Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3)\, the Goddard 
 Institute for Space Studies Model E2-R (GISS)\, and the Community Clim
 ate System Model\, Versions 3 and 4 (CCSM) Earth system models. Under 
 the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenari
 o\, by 2030 CE\, future climates most closely resemble Mid-Pliocene cl
 imates\, and by 2150 CE\, they most closely resemble Eocene climates. 
 Under RCP4.5\, climate stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions by 2040 
 CE. Pliocene-like and Eocene-like climates emerge first in continental
  interiors and then expand outward. Geologically novel climates are un
 common in RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% of the globe under RCP8.5\, char
 acterized by high temperatures and precipitation. Hence\, RCP4.5 is ro
 ughly equivalent to stabilizing at Pliocene-like climates\, while unmi
 tigated emission trajectories\, such as RCP8.5\, are similar to revers
 ing millions of years of long-term cooling on the scale of a few human
  generations. Both the emergence of geologically novel climates and th
 e rapid reversion to Eocene-like climates may be outside the range of 
 evolutionary adaptive capacity.<br>
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URL:https://www.physics.wisc.edu/events/?id=5064
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