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Chaos & Complex Systems Seminar
The complexities of conveying hurricane forecast uncertainty to the public
Date: Tuesday, March 3rd
Time: 12:05 pm
Place: 4274 Chamberlin (refreshments will be served)
Speaker: Derrick Herndon, Space Science and Engineering Center
Abstract: Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes) are one of the most violent and dynamic storms on our planet. Each year an average of 80 tropical cyclones develop over the warm tropical oceans. Most of these storms spin harmlessly at sea. Others bring extreme winds, torrential rainfall and surges from the ocean ashore to devastating effect. Significant progress has been made in our ability to forecast the development and track of these storms over the last few decades. However, substantial challenges remain. Our ability to forecast the internal dynamics that drive the changes in storm intensity have not quite kept pace with other aspects of the forecast problem. Providing accurate and meaningful forecast information for an inherently chaotic system to the public is also a continuing challenge. This talk will explore recent advances in our understanding of these storms along with some remaining challenges related to the complex interactions between people and hurricanes.
Host: Clint Sprott
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